宝玉 (@dotey)T2·Industry
78 pts
METR's independent assessment concludes that as of October 2026, Anthropic's rate of capability improvement on well-specified tasks is roughly 2x the March 2024 to October 2025 pace, with a range of 1.3x to 3x, and that about 80% of the acceleration may stem from heavy internal use of AI in R&D. The key quantitative evidence is a 1.9x acceleration in the AECI index (95% CI 1.5-2.8x), with no clear bottlenecks or diminishing returns observed, suggesting further acceleration over the next 12 months.